Northern Regional Summary

Review of 2007 and Outlook for 2008

 

After posting a gain of 7,000 in 2006, total nonfarm employment in the nine-county Northern New Jersey Region was virtually unchanged in 2007.  Based on nine-month averages (January to September), employment in the region went up just 800 to total 1,971,600 in 2007.

 

While the over-the-year change may have been marginal, there were significant changes within the labor areas contained in the region.  A gain of 2,900 jobs in the Newark Labor Area was mostly offset by the loss of 2,100 jobs in the Bergen/Hudson/Passaic Labor Area.  In comparison, statewide employment grew 0.5 percent over the same period.

 

In the nine-county region, a gain of 9,600 jobs in the service-providing sector just barely offset a loss of 8,800 jobs in the goods-producing sector.  The largest gains were in government (+3,600), other services and educational and health services (+3,000 each), and leisure and hospitality (+1,100).  Cancelling out most of these gains were losses in manufacturing (-7,400), professional and business services (-1,600), and construction (-1,400).

 

Job growth in the Northern Region is expected to be modest, at best, in 2008.  Because the population is projected to keep growing, there will be a need for more jobs in educational and health services, government, and retail trade.  The negative job trend in manufacturing is expected to continue.

 

Bergen/Hudson/Passaic Labor Area

Review of 2007 and Outlook for 2008

Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic Counties

 

By James McGarry, Bureau of Labor Market Information

 

In 2007, total nonfarm wage and salary employment in the Bergen/Hudson/Passaic Labor Area was affected by a slumping housing market, problems in the mortgage industry, weakening consumer demand, and the shrinking manufacturing sector.  Employment averaged 898,600, down 0.2 percent (-2,100 jobs) from 2006, based on nine-month averages (January to September).  In contrast, statewide employment grew 0.5 percent during the same period.  Since reaching a recessionary low of 897,400 in 2002, employment in the three-county labor area has increased just 0.1 percent, significantly slower than the state’s 2.7 percent gain.

 

In the labor area, job losses this year were concentrated in the manufacturing (-3,500), professional and business services (-2,400), construction (-1,300), and trade, transportation and utilities (-1,000) industry sectors.  In manufacturing, the losses, which have been steady since 1998, were equally divided between the durable goods and non-durable goods segments.  The labor area’s rate of loss was twice as fast as the state’s (-4.6% vs. -2.3%).  With stiff competition and high operating costs, manufacturers continued to cutback, close or move production to lower cost areas.  H.C. Starck, a producer of metal and ceramic powders, completed its move from Carlstadt (-125 jobs) to Cleveland, Ohio, in September.  Imagine Screen Printing & Production, which prints T-shirts and sweatshirts, relocated from Passaic City (-160 jobs) to Middlesex County in July and Inverness Corp., a manufacturer of sterile ear piercing systems, consolidated operations from Fair Lawn (-149 jobs) to North Carolina in January.  Based on nine-month averages, the number of manufacturing jobs in the labor area dropped from 156,400 in 1990 (earliest employment data by NAICS code available) to 72,700 in 2007, a loss of 83,700 or 53.5 percent.  The state lost 40.4 percent of its manufacturing jobs over the same period.

 

Employment in professional and business services declined for the second straight year.  With a slowing economy, demand has dropped for professional, scientific, technical (-1,000 jobs) and administrative support and waste management and remediation services (-1,400 jobs).  This industry sector provides services to businesses and individuals, such as legal, accounting/payroll, engineering, computer, human resources, administrative support, building maintenance, and security.  In June, Givaudan Flavors, Inc., a Swiss-based producer of flavors and fragrances, closed its facility in Teaneck and transferred operations and about 200 employees to Morris County.  Investigation and security services was the only segment to post a significant gain (+1,000 jobs) in 2007.

 

The loss in trade, transportation and utilities was mostly in retail trade (-1,000 jobs).  Much of this loss resulted from a drop in consumer demand caused, in part, by the crisis in the mortgage industry and to job security worries.  Food and beverage stores and general merchandise stores each posted a loss of 500 jobs from the same period in 2006.

 

Although total employment in the Bergen/Hudson/Passaic Labor Area was down in 2007, there were job gains in some industry sectors.  The more significant ones were in other services (+2,300), leisure and hospitality (+1,800), and government (+1,300).  Population growth in the labor area and surrounding counties helped fuel the job growth in other services and government, primarily at the local level (+1,700).  Other services include automotive repair and maintenance services, personal care and laundry services, and religious, grantmaking, civic, and professional organizations.

 

In leisure and hospitality, the positive job growth trend, which began in 1993, continued in 2007.  From 1993 to 2007, 17,000 jobs were created, a growth rate of 36.9 percent that was faster than the state’s 29.0 percent gain.  During the first nine months of 2007, job gains occurred mainly in accommodation and food services (+1,000), which includes hotels, full-service restaurants and limited-service (fast food) eating places.  Maggiano’s Little Italy and P.F. Chang’s recently opened at Riverside Square Mall in Hackensack with over 400 employees and Grand Lux Café opened in the Garden State Plaza in Paramus with over 180 employees.

 

The Bergen/Hudson/Passaic Labor Area’s unemployment rate averaged 4.5 percent for the first nine months of 2007, down from 5.0 percent in 2006.  The unemployment rate in each county of the labor area also showed improvement from 2006 – Bergen (3.6% vs. 4.1%), Hudson (5.2% vs. 5.8%), and Passaic (5.6% vs. 5.9%).  In comparison, statewide unemployment averaged 4.4 percent in 2007, down from 4.9 percent in 2006.

 

Job growth in 2008 in the Bergen/Hudson/Passaic Labor Area is expected to continue to remain slow and to lag the rest of the state.  The industry sectors that could generate employment growth are construction, educational and health services, leisure and hospitality, and other services.

 

In construction, the employment outlook should continue to be positive in 2008.  Large developments currently under construction include: the Meadowlands Xanadu Sport Complex and Giants/Jets Stadium projects in the Meadowlands, the 320,000-sq.ft. retail and entertainment Center City Project in Paterson: the renovation and expansion of the 300,000-sq.ft. Bergen Mall into the new 1.5 million-sq.ft. Bergen Town Center in Paramus; the 55-story first of  two residential towers of the Trump Plaza Jersey City development; the 26-story Westin Jersey City hotel in the Newport development, and the 25-story W Hoboken hotel along the Hudson River waterfront.

 

The positive trend in the leisure and hospitality sector should continue in 2008.  More restaurants are expected to open during the year.  Rosa Mexicana, a Mexican restaurant at the Riverside Square Mall in Hackensack, is scheduled to open in this November with a staff of 200. 

 

The 2008 unemployment rate in the Bergen/Hudson/Passaic Labor Area is expected to continue to be in the 4.0 to 5.0 range.

 

For more information on the Bergen/Hudson/Passaic Labor Area, please contact James McGarry by e-mail at james.mcgarry@dol.state.nj.us or call (973) 648-3866.

 

Newark - Union Labor Area

Review of 2007 and Outlook for 2008

Essex, Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, and Union Counties

 

By Ganga Sivakumar, Bureau of Labor Market Information

 

Total nonfarm wage and salary employment in the five-county Newark-Union Labor Market Area reached a record high of 1,033,800 in 2007, based on nine-month averages (January-September).  Employers added 2,900 jobs for a growth rate of 0.3 percent, compared to 0.5 percent statewide.  Though positive, this was slower than during the 2005-2006 period when employment grew 0.7 percent in the labor area and 0.9 percent in the state.  This moderation in job growth in 2007 was due, in part, to the slowing national economy.

 

Over the 2006-2007 period, job gains in the labor area’s service-providing sector (+6,700) were somewhat offset by losses in the goods-producing sector (-3,800).  The more significant service-providing job gains were 2,200 each in educational and health services, government, and 1,600 in trade, transportation and utilities.

 

Population growth was a key factor in the increased number of jobs in educational and health services and government.  Employment in educational and health services reached an 18-year average high of 142,500 in 2007 (1990 employment data by NAICS code is the earliest available).  Most of the gain from 2006 occurred in colleges, universities and professional schools and in health care and social assistance.  The increase in health care and social assistance was due mainly to hospitals expanding services, such as sports medicine, rehabilitation services, and wellness centers.  The labor area is home to several large hospitals, including Trinitas Hospital in Elizabeth and Newark Beth Israel Medical Center and University Hospital in Newark.  Education-related hiring at the local level was responsible for most of the job gain in government.

 

The increase in trade, transportation and utilities was more than three times the gain experienced in 2006 (+1.6% vs. +0.5%).  However, the 214,500-job total in 2007 remained below the pre-recession high of 221,700 in 2001.  Almost all of the job gain in the labor area was due to growth in the retail trade segment.  After losing 100 jobs each in 2005 and 2006, retail trade bounced back with 1,500 new jobs and reached a record high of 103,300 in 2007.  Some of the stores that opened during the first nine months of this year included a Super Stop & Shop supermarket in Union Township, an Eckerd drug store in Califon, a Walgreens drug store in Raritan Township, and a Polo Ralph Lauren Children’s, Gymboree Outlet, and Michael Kors stores in Flemington.  The gain would have been higher except for the loss of over 250 jobs due to the closing of three chain stores, Rockaway Bedding, Comp USA, and the Rag Shop.  Although, the number of jobs in the transportation, warehousing and utilities segment remained virtually unchanged from 2006, the air transportation industry added 900 jobs, reaching a high of 17,000 for 2007.  Air services at Newark Liberty International Airport increased due, in part, to hiring by Continental Airlines and to the addition of three new airlines - Silverjet Plc, French L’Avion, and Qatar Airways.

 

Within the professional and business services industry sector, the picture was mixed in 2007.  The sector, which provides services to both companies and individuals that include professional, scientific, technical, management, and administrative support, added 600 jobs during the first nine months in 2007.  A gain of 2,600 jobs in professional, scientific and technical services, however, was mostly eclipsed by losses in administrative support and waste management and remediation services (-1,600) and in management of companies and enterprises (-400).  Less demand for these services was probably related to a slowing economy.

 

The five-county labor area’s shrinking manufacturing base was largely responsible for the overall loss in the goods-producing sector (-3,800 jobs) from 2006 to 2007.  Once the mainstay of the labor area’s economy, factory payrolls fell by 3,700 or 4.1 percent, with losses in both the durable (-2,300) and non-durable goods (-1,400) segments.  These losses were due to automation, closings, cutbacks, mergers, and relocations.  Affected industries included chemicals, fabricated metals, food products, paper manufacturing, plastics and rubber products, machinery manufacturing, and nonmetallic mineral products.

 

The unemployment rate for both the Newark/Union Labor Area and the state averaged 4.4 percent for the first nine months of 2007, down from 4.9 percent in 2006.  All five counties in the labor area recorded decreases in their unemployment rates, ranging from a drop of 0.6 percentage point in Hunterdon to 0.2 percentage points in Sussex.

 

Even though total employment in the Newark-Union Labor Market Area reached a record high in 2007 and employment growth has generally been positive since its low point of 907,200 in 1992, there is some uncertainty about which way the job picture will go in 2008.  Not until the effects from the tumult in the mortgage industry, a slumping housing market, a declining manufacturing sector, and a weak dollar on the labor area’s economy are known will there be a clear picture on whether total job growth will be positive or negative next year.

 

In the labor area, any job growth is expected to be mainly in trade, transportation and utilities and in educational and health services.  In trade, transportation and utilities, more jobs are anticipated in the retail trade and the transportation and warehousing segments.  In September, construction began on The Shoppes at Flemington in Flemington.  The shopping center will have smaller, high-end merchants, including Ann Taylor Loft, Coldwater Creek, J. Jill, Lane Bryant, New York & Company, Talbots, Limited Too, The Children’s Place, and Bensi.  The shopping center is expected to open next fall with 30 to 33 retail and food establishments.  In Dover, a Bravo supermarket and Walgreen’s drug store are scheduled to open this November, creating 70 jobs.

 

Most of the new jobs in educational and health services are anticipated to be in health and social assistance, which includes home health care services, medical offices, and nursing and personal care facilities.  As the area’s population continues to expand and age, demand should increase for medical and social services, especially among the poor and the elderly.

 

There could be some more softening in construction employment in 2008 as some major projects are nearing completion and if residential construction continues to slowdown.  Some of the construction projects scheduled for completion this year are the Prudential Center in Newark and the 212-suite Grand Cascades Lodge, a hotel condominium, at the Crystal Springs Resort in Vernon.

 

Projects underway or about to begin include the three-building Picatinny Applied Research Campus in Rockaway Township; the New Jersey headquarters for L’Oreal USA in Berkeley Heights; the North American Consumer Products Creative Center for Givaudan Flavors, Inc., a Swiss-based producer of flavors and fragrances, in East Hanover; a $300-million pharmaceutical sciences research center and office campus at the Schering-Plough Research Institute in Summit; and a new corporate headquarters for the Wyndham Worldwide Corporation in Parsippany.  Infrastructure projects under construction include the Stickel Bridge (Route 280) over the Passaic River, the Interstate 78 resurfacing and reconstruction in Essex and Union counties while school construction projects include Orange Township, Drew University in Madison, and Union County College in Elizabeth.

 

The labor area’s unemployment rate in 2008 could fluctuate between 4.5 percent and 5.0 percent in the coming year.

 

For more information on the Newark-Union Labor Area, please contact Ganga Sivakumar by e-mail at ganga.sivakumar@dol.state.nj.us or call (973) 877-1430.

 

 

Warren Labor Area

Review of 2007 and Outlook for 2008

Warren County

 

By James McGarry, Bureau of Labor Market Information

 

In Warren County, total nonfarm employment in 2007 was essentially unchanged from a year ago.  Based on nine-month averages (January to September), the county had an average of 39,200 jobs in 2007.  Statewide, employment grew 0.5 percent over the same 2006-2007 period.  Nevertheless, this was an improvement over the county’s loss of 1,100 jobs (-2.7%) in 2006.  Since 2000 (latest employment data by NAICS code available for Warren), employment in the county has grown 17.0 percent (+5,700 jobs) compared to the state’s 2.7 percent.  Most of the county’s job gain can be attributed to population growth that resulted from increases in both natural increment (births minus deaths) and migration into the county.

 

From 2006 to 2007, Warren County had job gains of 200 in professional and business services and 100 each in trade, transportation and utilities, and government that were overshadowed by job losses of 200 in manufacturing and 100 each in financial activities and educational and health services.

 

The manufacturing sector continued to contract in 2007, but the rate of loss was slower than last year (-3.6% vs. -8.2%).  Manufacturing’s share of total employment fell from 20.3 percent in 2000 to 13.8 percent in 2007.  Even with the job loss this year, there was still some positive news.  For example, a former warehouse in Phillipsburg was renovated into the Walter Park Complex, a 224,000-sq.ft. mixed-use building.  This structure has been retrofitted to accommodate nine tenants, including Hunterdon Transformer, a designer and manufacturer of industrial transformers, who transferred 15 jobs from Kenilworth (Union County) and Alpha to the complex in August.

 

The Warren County unemployment rate for the first nine months of 2007 averaged 3.8 percent, down from 4.3 percent in 2006.  Over the same period, the state’s average unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in 2007, down from 4.9 percent in 2006.

 

Even though the employment outlook for Warren County in 2008 is modest at best, the county will continue to attract new residents because of its rural environment, recreational areas, and easy access to Northern New Jersey and New York City via interstates 78 and 80.  With population growth that is expected to outpace statewide growth in the years ahead, there will be a need for additional jobs, especially in retail trade, educational and health services, and local government.

 

In retail trade, Shop-Rite is replacing a smaller supermarket with a larger one in Washington Township.  Completion is anticipated for mid-2008 and the workforce will increase from approximately 160 to about 225.  Wal-Mart is also replacing a smaller store in Pohatcong Township.  Construction should begin in early 2008 with completion expected before the end of the year. 

 

Any job growth in educational and health services will be concentrated in the health care and social assistance segment, while the need for increased staffing of schools could boost payrolls in local government.

 

The unemployment rate in the Warren County should remain in the 3.5 to 4.5 percent range in 2008.

 

For more information on Warren County, please contact James McGarry by e-mail at james.mcgarry@dol.state.nj.us or call (973) 648-3866.