This
report presents population and civilian labor force projections for the 21
counties in the state of
This
report includes the county-level projections based on the Economic-Demographic
projection model.
These
projections supersede demographic projections previously prepared by this
Department. The race and Hispanic
origin groups included in the projections are white non-Hispanic, white
Hispanic, black (or African American), “other races”, multiracial (two or more
races) and total Hispanic. The “other races” include Asian, American Indian and
Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander. Hispanic origin is not a race. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any
race. The race distribution of the estimated/projected population is different
from that of the census counts because they were modified to be consistent with
the
1997 Standards for Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity and other data sources. Persons of “Some other races” were
redistributed to specified race categories in the modification.
The numbers in
this report are projections, not forecasts or predictions.
A projection is the measurement of a future condition that would
exist if the assumptions and procedures of the method proved to be empirically
valid in the future. Projections
may assume continuation of past conditions, present conditions or trended changes
in historical conditions. They may
also assume entirely new transition rates.
Given the method and the assumptions, a projection is always correct if
the operations of the projection method are carried out without error. The number of possible projections for
any given population is therefore infinite. A forecast, on the other hand, is
a projection that is also a judgmental statement concerning the expected
measurement of future conditions; it is a prediction. All forecasts are projections, but not
all projections are forecasts.
Again, numbers in this report are projections, not forecasts.[1]
Furthermore, the
projections presented in this report are not designated “official” nor “policy”
projections and should not be interpreted as goal or policy oriented. They are not intended to constrain or to
advocate specific levels of growth in the state. All series are presented as baseline,
that is, independent of exogenous public or private interventionist activities
of an unusual, unforeseen, or undocumented nature or magnitude. They are based primarily on identifiable
demographic and economic secular trends which have been implicitly or
explicitly incorporated into the models.
The greatest value of the projections is as a reference framework for
planning, research, program evaluation and considerations for alternative
growth scenarios which could be achieved through greater or less resource
development.
Presentation of Results
This report
provides summary tables for all counties including total population (Table 1) and
civilian labor force (Table 8), as well as some details by age (Tables 2 and 9),
sex (Tables 3 and 10), age and sex (Tables 4 and 11), race and Hispanic origin
(Tables 5 and 12) and race-sex-origin (Tables 6 and 13) for population and
labor force based on the Economic-Demographic Model. The detailed projections of population
and civilian labor force by age, race, sex and Hispanic origin are given in
Tables 7 and 14, respectively. Data by the same racial groups were
tabulated for both population and labor force. However, labor force is divided
into 6 age groups while population consists of 18 age groups. Because of rounding, there may be small
discrepancies between projection distributions and totals.
No
hardcopy of this publication is prepared. The county projections data are only
available online at the Office of Labor Planning and Analysis’ Labor Fast
Facts web site (http://www.nj.gov/labor/lra).
Caution on Interpretation
As
noted at the outset, projections are not forecasts. In addition, they
are not designated “official” nor
“policy” projections. The
employment projections for the state are available for the year 2012 only.
Particular caution is advised in interpreting results for 2007, 2015, 2020 and 2025. Although they were consistent with the interpolated
and extrapolated employment projections for the corresponding years, no actual
employment projections were developed for these years. Users of any long-term
projections should also be advised that the plausibility of historically based
assumptions declines with increasing departure from the base year. Projections are by their nature biased
in favor of continuity. There is
generally little basis for projecting substantial departures from past trends,
so few such departures are projected.
Yet, there is little doubt that unforeseen changes will occur. Dramatic changes or disruptions of the
current and/or recent economic-demographic conditions in the future such as
major natural disasters, wars or a major overhaul of the nation’s immigration
policies, etc. may invalidate the projections.
The Division of
Labor Market and Demographic Research hopes that users of these projections
will comment on them. Please direct
all comments, suggestions and data requests to New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce
Development, Division of Labor
Market and Demographic Research, P O Box 388, Trenton, New Jersey 08625‑0388;
phone: 609-292‑0076; e-mail: sywu@dol.state.nj.us.
List of Tables
Table 1. Projections of Total Population by County:
Table 2. Projections of
Table 3. Projections of
Table 4. Projections of
Table 5. Projections of
Table 6. Projections of
Table 7. Projections of
Table 8. Projections of Civilian Labor Force by County:
Table 9. Projections of
Table 10. Projections of
Table 11. Projections of
Table 12. Projections of
Table 13. Projections of
Table 14. Projections of